Here's three ways to set up the 5pt for the cube prop.
(BTW, seems to me from looking at what happens after Mochy goes first and rolls a great number, 31, that Phil is still a pick em. Plus, even though doubles don't count on the first roll, I assume they do count on the reply to the first roll, which IMO will come up bigger on games where Mochy goes first because these are the games where he is less of an dog from the gate.)
4 pips:
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| XGID=-b---BD-B---eE---c-e----B-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 44.74% (G:11.22% B:0.48%) | 44.71% (G:11.26% B:0.49%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 55.26% (G:16.42% B:0.69%) | 55.29% (G:16.36% B:0.68%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0.159 | -0.318 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | +0.005 | |
| Redouble/Beaver: | -1.493 (-1.498) | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.995) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Beaver | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 37.5% | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
11 pips:
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| XGID=-b---BE-B---eD---c-e----B-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 43.59% (G:11.20% B:0.46%) | 43.58% (G:11.10% B:0.47%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 56.41% (G:18.69% B:1.02%) | 56.42% (G:18.54% B:0.97%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0.209 | -0.416 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | -0.051 | |
| Redouble/Beaver: | -1.727 (-1.676) | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+1.051) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Beaver | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 38.1% | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release
9 pips
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| XGID=-b---BD-C---eD---c-e----B-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No redouble | Redouble/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 42.05% (G:10.13% B:0.42%) | 42.04% (G:10.14% B:0.42%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 57.95% (G:17.87% B:0.75%) | 57.96% (G:17.88% B:0.75%) |
| Cubeless Equities | -0.240 | -0.480 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No redouble: | -0.089 | |
| Redouble/Beaver: | -1.871 (-1.782) | |
| Redouble/Pass: | +1.000 (+1.089) | |
| Best Cube action: No redouble / Beaver | ||
| Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 38.3% | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release