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Ken's proposal

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Wednesday, 18 December 2013, at 12:15 a.m.

In Response To: Ken's proposal (Ken Larsen)

You are doing a statistical manipulation of short-term results. That's all well and good, but it doesn't really tell you who the best players are.

For example you have players close to the top of your list whom I don't believe are in the top 50% of the field at most ABT tournaments. Other strong players like Falafel or Petko get delegated to the bottom quartile. Several ABT players with strong results aren't on there at all.

Actual results are great, but they have a high margin of error and are extremely short run, even if you go 5 years back (and weighting it to favor the past year or 2 makes it more short run). So it should be taken with a hefty serving of salt. When you start trying to take it as, "these are who the best players are", or "the formula is basically correct, save for some tweaks", I think you are making a huge error in reasoning. And no matter what kind of statistical manipulation you do of tournament results, you are still going to have the same problem. Guys hit a lucky streak like Dana all the time, or an unlucky streak like Falafel or Petko (not that Dana isn't a strong player, but literally anyone could get to the top of the list just by winning 2 events).

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