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Ken's proposal

Posted By: Matt Cohn-Geier
Date: Wednesday, 18 December 2013, at 2:21 a.m.

In Response To: Ken's proposal (Ken Larsen)

For ex. I think Bill Phipps, Arkadiy, and Michy should be included, among others.

Yes, I have an alternative. PR has a much lower margin of error. So judging based on PR, performance on specific positions/tests, and subjective evaluation of skill. Perhaps more widely available recording/streaming of matches.

I don't have anything against tournament results. Results are a whole lot better than nothing. However what you are doing is basically looking at a bunch of random data points and applying a formula to it. Which is all well and good unless you think that the formula does more than it's supposed to--which is to basically look at the info on the ABT results page, not to tell you who the best players are.

No formula can correct for short term fluctuations. Falafel and Petko are strong players, regardless of what their past performance has been. And they have had pretty decent performance--their overall win % over the events they've entered are 62% and 58%, respectively. Sometimes people don't put together a streak on a specific weekend.

There are also other players on the list who are several spots higher or lower than expectancy, but those are some that really stand out. It should be clear that the database is not perfect. I don't have a problem with looking at tournament results, but I do have a problem with saying that this should obviously influence your Giants voting, and here's how, by using this specific metric.

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