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What is the best (fairest and most efficient) way to tie-break 4 player round robins?
Posted By: Colin Owen In Response To: What is the best (fairest and most efficient) way to tie-break 4 player round robins? (sebalotek)
Date: Wednesday, 5 October 2016, at 7:15 p.m.
"Perhaps Colin can also quantify the probabilities for his proposed solution?"
Way too much work for me! I reckon it might take Dr Bob Koca the best part of an hour (easily) to work that one out! It all assumes that the players are equal, of course. I soon worked out that there are (or seem to be!) 13 combinations of final points (ie match wins), ignoring the possibility of forfeits, from 6-4-2-0 down to 3-3-3-3. That's as far as I want to take it! I do believe though that the chance of the tie remaining with my proposed system is greater than with Neil's.
Two other thoughts occur to me. I mean no disrespect to Neil's proposal, which is certainly original, but the idea of playing two different length matches goes against the grain somewhat. It seems to me that part of the idea of playing each of the other three players twice, apart from making the season last longer, is to give each the chance to host the fixture, whether played in their own homes or in a pub/bar near them. Just like the arbitrary points system employed (3-1-0) and using points (goal) difference to split ties it all seems football related to me. Now, the advantage of playing a football match on your own ground, in front of (largely) one's own fans, and with the impact this can have upon the officials is very considerable. Much greater than playing a bg match on your own board, in your own home or at a pub you like, and not having to travel. In fact, I believe that in these leagues 'double headers', ie where the players agree to play both matches in the same session, are not uncommon, in which case they may well choose a 'neutral' venue. But, when they do play 'home and away', it still seems to me that the two matches should, therefore, be of equal length.
The other is that on the other hand, I guess, players are probably more likely to want to play a series of 11 point matches than the 'best of three' to 5 points. I know Phil Simborg for one is a huge fan of the latter format, and players are certainly more used to shorter matches (sets) that's for sure, but this format is, as yet, uncommon. Playing to 11 points does makes for a change, of course, for players who play the great majority of their matches to 5 or 7 points. But, if you want to (greatly) reduce those end of season ties in the first place, and without recourse to using points difference, which can change the objectives of the matches themselves, it seems to me that these leagues are the perfect place for a 'best of three' format.
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