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Actual Position (Video) and Short Rollouts

Posted By: Chris Yep
Date: Monday, 28 March 2016, at 12:14 p.m.

In Response To: Nordic Open Ruling in Quarterfinals -- O'Laughlin vs. Mitrelis (Bill Riles)

I didn't watch the match live, but for those interested here's a video of the match. The illegal move occurred just after the 4:25:35 mark.

Here's the original position (before the 61 has been played and before the 53 was rolled):





White is Player 1

score: 16
pip: 79
17 point match
Crawford
pip: 180
score: 15

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-CbEDbaa--B--a---aabbb---A:0:0:-1:61:16:15:1:17:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout119/13 8/7eq: +1.029
Player:
Opponent:
75.54% (G:25.89% B:2.94%)
24.46% (G:15.04% B:1.06%)
Conf.: ± 0.024 (+1.004...+1.053) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds
2.Rollout120/14 8/7eq: +0.941 (-0.088)
Player:
Opponent:
73.31% (G:23.72% B:2.67%)
26.69% (G:17.22% B:2.11%)
Conf.: ± 0.025 (+0.915...+0.966) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 29 seconds
3.Rollout118/12 8/7eq: +0.925 (-0.104)
Player:
Opponent:
73.02% (G:23.20% B:1.59%)
26.98% (G:17.42% B:1.57%)
Conf.: ± 0.027 (+0.898...+0.951) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 21 seconds
4.Rollout112/6 8/7eq: +0.890 (-0.138)
Player:
Opponent:
70.88% (G:23.63% B:1.98%)
29.12% (G:18.24% B:1.83%)
Conf.: ± 0.027 (+0.863...+0.917) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 14 seconds
5.3-ply19/13 7/6eq: +0.726 (-0.303)
Player:
Opponent:
67.88% (G:18.41% B:0.80%)
32.12% (G:18.58% B:0.59%)
1 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28077514
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

Knowing his opponent's next roll (a 53) Ed could consider 20/14 8/7, but an XG rollout still likes his actual play (19/13 8/7). According to the rollout, Ed is +0.901 after 19/13 8/7, but only +0.861 after 20/14 8/7. Both moves give him 28 shots at the 8-point blot. After 20/14 8/7 only 53, 52, 32, and 21 miss. After 19/13 8/7 only 63, 62, 61, and 21 miss. In addition 19/13 8/7 keeps the 20 point.

After 19/13 8/7:





White is Player 2

score: 15
pip: 173
17 point match
Crawford
pip: 79
score: 16

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CbEDb-a--B-aa----bbbb---A:0:0:1:53:16:15:1:17:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout1Bar/17eq: -0.901
Player:
Opponent:
27.58% (G:17.99% B:2.25%)
72.42% (G:22.62% B:2.26%)
Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.912...-0.890)
Duration: 9 minutes 30 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28077514
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

After 20/14 8/7:





White is Player 2

score: 15
pip: 173
17 point match
Crawford
pip: 79
score: 16

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-CbEDaaa--Ba-a----bbbb---A:0:0:1:53:16:15:1:17:10
Blue to play 53

1.Rollout1Bar/17eq: -0.861
Player:
Opponent:
29.62% (G:19.71% B:2.18%)
70.38% (G:22.66% B:1.82%)
Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.874...-0.848) - [99.9%]
Duration: 9 minutes 24 seconds
2.Rollout1Bar/22 10/5* eq: -0.894 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:
29.56% (G:20.64% B:3.21%)
70.44% (G:24.26% B:2.69%)
Conf.: ± 0.015 (-0.909...-0.879) - [0.1%]
Duration: 10 minutes 12 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28077514
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.211.pre-release, MET: Kazaross XG2

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